Covid-19 and the Travel Industry

The Coronavirus

The year 2019 was almost over, we were already working actively on our "New Year's Resolution" and if you are like me, you probably were debating what places you were going to visit in 2020. All seemed good when all of a sudden the world heard about the COVID-19. It was a new and deadly Coronavirus that came from Wuhan, China, and spread like a wild fire. Before we could even understand how to fight it and control it, this virus had expanded both inside and outside Asia and affect more than 200 countries and territories. The W.H.O (World Health Organisation) quickly declared it a pandemic. To date, almost 3 millions people worldwide have been infected and over 203,000 died. So how is this virus going to impact the Travel Industry? Let's be honest ... it will.

From what the experts understood early on about the spread of the Coronavirus, some precautions were advised: avoid crowd and stay at least 6 feet away from each other, wash your hands frequently and later on they encourage everyone to wear a mask when in public. At this point, all I could do is try to be as safe as possible and put my passport back in the drawer because I was not going to go anywhere.

In February, we all learned about the Diamond Princess cruise line that got quarantined near Yokohama, Japan. It was reported that over 700 people got infected by the Coronavirus and 13 had died on that ship. It was the biggest outbreak outside of China. It was still early but the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Covid-19 a pandemic. In fact it had already been in several countries within the different continent and was being transmitted very fast. The last known pandemic was the H1N1 in 1918. Researchers believed that it infected a third of the world global population and killed millions. The concern was: Will the Covid-19 as deadly as the H1N1? Pretty soon, the virus was in several European countries. Spain, Italy and France saw many thousands of cases of infections and deaths daily. At this point, governments around the world started asking their citizen to quarantine as much as possible and to avoid non-essential travel. Soon after they also closed their borders. At this point we were sure that the Coronavirus pandemic was going to disrupt travels and travel planning worldwide. Health care experts predict that travel as we knew it should resume in the next 18 to 24 months. In the mid time the international economy was getting rocked and it will take a lot more time to get the hotel and airline industry back on track.

Because one way to combat the spread of the virus is to avoid close contact with others, airlines had to ground their fleet and cruise vacations got cancelled. Everywhere, hotels were about empty and restaurants and night clubs were asked to close their doors. The major event this summer, the Olympic games in Tokyo, was proven to be too dangerous. The International Olympic Committee, therefore decided to postpone the games to 2021.

Worldwide the tourism industry accounts for about 10% of the global GDP and is expected to fall close to 10% this year. This would be the largest drop on record for the past 40 years.

The coronavirus epidemic is putting up to 50 million jobs in the global travel and tourism sector at risk, with travel likely to slump by a quarter this year, Asia being the most affected continent, the World Travel and Tourism Council has said. Around 850,000 people travel each month from Europe to the United States, equivalent to a $3.4 billion monthly contribution to the U.S. economy, Messina said.

Because countries closed their borders and flight everywhere got suspended, the travel and tourism industry was was the first industry to get hit so hard. The pandemic cost countries billions of dollars. During the months of January and February, the number of commercial flights fell down drastically. It would not take long for companies to fall under the burden of the pandemic. Regional Airlines in the USA, Virgin Airlines in Australia and Avianca, one of the oldest and largest airlines in Latin America are among the companies that filed for bankruptcy. Norwegian Cruise Lines may be going out of business from the information that are coming out. Royal Caribbean's Spanish partner Venture declares bankruptcy. Those are some well known companies that were not able to stay afloat. With every passing day, we see small business owners forced to close their doors also.

Most people I talked to are really hopeful that by some Grace of God, Covid-19 will disappear or maybe we will find a cure for it. When it comes to the Tourism Industry, they have their eyes on the Summer with no real hope. Hotels are closed, cruise ships are not moving, parks and attractions are closed. If we can't flatten the curve of the spread of the virus and the mortality rate, it will be very difficult to get the tourism industry back on track. At this point, even the local tourism is dead.

Worldwide, everyone is affected. From the magnificent Santorini to the exotic Caribbean Islands or from the Eiffel Tower to the romantic Venice, it all seems like it will be long a stretch before we vacation again. It's also hard to imagine going on a cruise, knowing all we we know about the virus and how easy it is to transmit.

Spain's foreign minister (Arancha Gonzalez Laya) had to say the country would only open to tourists slowly and gradually when they can guarantee the safety of the tourists. Most leaders of countries followed the same foot step. Some European countries rely a lot on the revenue from the tourism industry and we can only imagine how they will be impacted. In the US, the Tourism Economics estimate that the travel and tourism industry could loose at least $24 billions from international tourists (Tourism Economics). They also believe the virus would be contained in about 6 months ! (wishful thinking )

According to the World Bank, tourism is about 20% of GDP in Greece, 15% in Spain and 13% in Italy

In spite of all this, we know that we will find a cure and the outbreak will be over. The question that comes to mind is how long will it take us to start travelling again with no worries and how fast will the travel industry recover? For now, all we can do is stay safe and hopeful and plan what will be our first destination when this whole mess is over !